Open: New York Session | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture May 13, 2021

A member of the National Guard plays a trumpet during a flag rai


This month’s 1st US winter wheat crop was 27 million bu larger than trade ideas with higher hard & soft red crop prospects. However, reduced PNW & N Plains spring wheat potential because of current dryness kept the USDA’s overall wheat crop near expectations. China’s strong purchases & Brazil’s dryness hurting its second crop (102 vs 109 mmt last month) helped boost corn’s exports by 100 million bu. Even with a 70 million bu higher feeding estimate, 2021/22 US wheat stocks were higher (WEAT).
Similar to corn, optimism about larger world wheat crops also surfaced with a lower US export forecast. These smaller demands resulted in larger 2022 US corn & wheat stocks than expected. The USDA did utilize their Ag Forum yield levels & this spring’s planting intentions to project the general sizes of the 2021/22 US corn and soybean crops. This will help in production of 62.47 mt of soybean oil.Palm oil output is forecast at 76.37 mt with India likely to import 8.7 mt of it.
May’s old-crop US soybean stocks were left unchanged at 120 million bu as expected. Corn’s US 20/21 feed & ethanol demands were left unchanged this month.


less Kathy Lien Follow The U.S. dollar soared on Wednesday on reports that consumer prices rose at their fastest pace since 2008. The U.S. dollar soared on Wednesday on reports that consumer prices rose at their fastest pace since 2008. While foreign inflows worked out for the local currency, persisting weakness in dollar also helped rupee fare better against the greenback. The Canadian dollar also ended the day lower but it was the most resilient, losing only 0.2% of its value versus the greenback.
Pixabay The higher-than-expected inflation rate in the United States triggered a sharp selloff in the equity markets and a rally in the US dollar. The yield curve also steepenedmarkedly.That was a shot in the arm for the dollar, which had been buckling under the weight of rapidly expanding U.S. budget and trade deficits. Because of the increase in the inflation, which is seen positive for the US economy, there can be a temporary rally in the dollar weighing on the domestic unit.
Both the headline and core CPI exceeded expectations, triggering a sharp selloff in equities and a US dollar rally. The New Zealand and Australian dollars were hit the hardest by the sell-off in stocks, losing more than 1.5% of their value against the U.S. dollar. The US 10-year yield jumped, providing a nice concession at the quarterly refunding and lifted the dollar broadly.


Gold, in particular, dropped over $20 on the news, which is surprising giving the fact that gold is a traditional hedge against inflation. Gold saw its biggest sell of in 2.5 months in the previous session following the jump in US inflation to its highest level since 2008. Today Gold is attempting a rebound of sorts, as treasury yields hold steady and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East support the precious metal. Gold sees mild gains ahead with US PPI data in focus after shocking rise in CPI inflation.
This entails protecting portfolios against higher rates by tilting allocations toward assets like gold and cheap “value” companies. Turquoise’s first-quarter copper production rose 29% to 45,449 tonnes and gold output increased by 461.5% to 145,656 ounces at Oyu Tolgoi, from last year. After four days of approached but unable to push above $1850, rising yields sapped gold, which fell to nearly $1810 in Europe. S&P 500 futures pointed to another move lower at the open, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 1.704%, oil slumped and gold was down.
Gold is seeing a mild rebound after yesterday’s losses.
His newsletter is a Monday through Thursday email report that trades the S&P, Nasdaq and gold issues.


Oil use in food consumption is expected to increase a tad to 21.98 mt (21.71 mt).Overall, domestic edible oil consumption is projected at 22.77 mt (22.44 mt). This will also see edible oil imports rising marginally to 14.74 mt next season (14.57 mt), the USDA said.Supply scenarioThe agency has projected total oilseeds production at 632.23 mt. Russia doubled its borrowing plan last year to help shield the economy from the pandemic as oil prices collapsed and the U.S. weighed sanctions on ruble debt sales.
Oil prices dropped more than 2% as India’s coronavirus crisis deepened and Colonial Pipeline resumed operations. Oil imports would be tempered by higher domestic production and surging prices. Gasoline Pipeline Restarts After Cyberattack Biden is also urging Americans “to just purchase what they need, and not hoard fuel, as supply is restored,” Psaki said. Capital expenditure has played an underrated role in the past: A surge in oil and gas exploration in the 1970s may have eventually helped cool inflation.
Its soya oil imports are expected to be steady at 3.7 mt. If we look at the core consumer price index, stripping out the impact of oil s collapse 12 months ago, we can see a clear trend. Moreover, US gasoline stocks rose by 400,000 barrels, whilst distillate stocks eased by 1.7 million barrels.

United States

The US too came up with its inflation data for April – the CPI inflation rose to 0.8 per cent from 0.6 per cent recorded in March. Higher inflation should weigh on a currency, but the market participants are now seeing the Fed tapering the asset purchases much sooner than before the inflation data. U.S. stock futures fell, and world equities tumbled, tracking a selloff on Wall Street in the previous session, as a surprisingly large rise in U.S. consumer prices spooked investors.
Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida said he was “surprised” by the sharp rise in inflation, leaving investors wondering if today’s report raised eyebrows for other policy-makers. Treasury yields surged to 1.68% in the biggest jump in 2 months as high inflation prompted bets that the Fed could move on rates sooner. China will make up 50 per cent of this, the US agency said.India’s soyameal exports could top 1.7 mt, lower than this season but near a five-year average.
A shocking rise in US inflation sent US treasury yields surging and has prompted expectations of a sooner move by the Fed. Last session, inflation data were released in India and the US and this can have an impact on the exchange rate of USDINR. ANALYSIS What U.S. inflation signs would cause Fed to change course? The US 10-year yield is steady, near 1.69%, while European yields are 2-5 bp higher, with benchmark yields at the high for the year.


“A rescue without a haircut for bondholders, in which Beijing would only have to pay about 60 billion yuan, is possible. In March, when the Philippines first protested the Chinese incursions, Beijing said they were “taking shelter from the wind.” The shortages are now spreading from autos to smartphones and displays, elevating semiconductors onto the agendas of governments from Washington to Brussels and Beijing. Beijing is also expected to drive oilmeal demand, mainly through offtake of protein meals.
Beijing’s foreign policy is counter-productive.


The European Union says Russia is trying to gradually absorb parts of eastern Ukraine, according to a document the bloc shared this week with member states. Slovakia is set to become the second EU member to use the Russian Sputnik V coronavirus vaccine after resolving a disagreement over negative reports by its drug regulator. It remains uncertain whether the World Trade Organization will approve the vaccine waiver, not least because the European Union has been cool to the idea.
It was a huge boost for the U.K. prime minister that underscored the strength of local support for Brexit. A Peek Under the Hood Shows RisksAn ECB spokesman declined to comment on the officials’ portfolios. Goods exports to the EU rebounded 8.6% in March from a month earlier. Those months were picked as comparisons before and after Brexit. How do ECB chiefs invest their own cash? ECB laggards.