Open: New York Session | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture November 13, 2020

A member of the National Guard plays a trumpet during a flag rai

Agriculture

Britain’s wheat imports surge in September Britain’s wheat imports rose sharply in September and are running at more than double last season’s pace, customs data showed on Thursday. The estimate suggests wheat production in Argentina, a major global exporter, will be the lowest in five years, the exchange said late on Wednesday. MARKET NEWS Chicago soybean futures ticked lower, but the market was on track for a second weekly gain because of strong demand from top importer China.
Wheat imports for the month totalled 337,212 tonnes, up from 222,337 tonnes in August. ICE raw sugar prices rose 3% on Thursday but remained firmly within recent ranges as traders awaited news from India on its sugar export policy. Argentina is the world’s leading exporter of soybean oil and meal, with huge processing plants mostly along the Parana River around the city of Rosario in Santa Fe province. There is a stalemate on boundaries, with the Hoima Sugar company insisting that about 22 square miles leased to it aren t part of the forest.

Currencies

International equities are priced in their local currency, so when those currencies rise against the dollar, the dollar value of those equities usually increased. However, the U.S. dollar is quite high and another round of stimulus may pressure the dollar to decline lower. Dollar indexThe dollar index was largely flat yesterday trading around the key resistance level of 93. However, the dollar index indicate sluggish dollar movement. On Monday, risk markets were on fire, with US equities pushing to record highs and the US Dollar broadly under pressure.
The worrying picture is weighing on markets and the classic move would be a move toward the safe-haven US dollar. Fortunately, the Federal Reserve’s dovish policy stance has caused the inflation-indexed yield to plummet which makes the U.S. dollar a less attractive investment. EU antitrust investigations of U.S. tech giants, and the associated billion dollar fines, have been a source of friction for years, leading to U.S. accusations of European anti-Americanism.
The rupee (INR) settled 28 paise lower against the dollar (USD) as it ended the last session at 74.65 versus Wednesday’s close of 74.37. I believe this is critical in times like today when monetary policy has put the U.S. dollar in a precarious position.

Metals

After 190,000 toz gold and 2.15 million toz silver is delivered, the stream will be reduced to 3.25% gold and 50% silver. According to the deal, Wheaton will pay Caldas Gold $110 million for a 6.5% gold and 100% silver production stream. (Source: Author’s own processing, using data from Gran Colombia Gold) Although gold production increased, the production costs increased too. (Source: Author’s own processing, using data from Gran Colombia Gold) Fortunately, the average realized gold price increased as well, from $1,696/toz to $1,875/toz.
In Q3 2020, Gran Colombia Gold produced 58,454 toz gold. Gold price reached a record of $1,914 and silver at $24.77 this quarter.PAAS is a good long-term investment. The gold and silver prices are weakening as we speak, and it is not helping PAAS. Especially if the gold price remains at its current levels and the Marmato mine expansion is completed successfully. The company is a good play both in gold and silver.
Even with the recent volatility in prices, gold remains among the best-performing commodities this year to combat the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic.

Oil

The EIA meanwhile reported a surprise oil stock build as refinery demand remains weak with implied gasoline demand still trailing last year by 1 million b/d. Rosneft, the world’s second-largest oil producer by output behind Saudi Aramco, was forced to reduce oil production in line with the OPEC+ supply pact aimed at stabilising global markets. U.S. government data also added pressure, as crude inventories rose by 4.3 million barrels last week, compared with an expected fall of 913,000 barrels.
Future downward pressure has come from a build in US crude stocks, which rose by 4.3 million bbl last week.
Crude Value Insights offers you an investing service and community focused on oil and natural gas. However, there is guerilla activity near the Venezuelan border and blockades or other work stoppages have occurred that had nothing to do with the oil and gas industry. Besides, many South American Colombia basins have lower costs than much of the oil and gas industry worldwide. Fuel oil inventories eased by 6,000 mt to 1.35 million mt. It is true that should a strong and sustained oil price rally occur in the future, this common stock would provide quite a return.
The resurgence of Covid-19 in the US is reaching a level that is raising fears of new restrictions on activity, with the crude oil market certainly taking note.

United States

Green Daily In climate news today… Fed’s Powell says central banks must address climate change. They share a belief in multilateralism, WTO reform, climate action and possibly even some elements of industrial policy that could echo President Trump’s America First agenda. In a separate report, Goldman’s economic team uses real-time data to determine the US economy is rolling over due to the resurgence of the virus pandemic. The essence of that promise was that the Federal Reserve would see that the US Government would get whatever funds it needed for whatever purpose.
WTTC’s 2019 Economic Impact Report details how travel and tourism accounted for at least $1.84 trillion to the US economy and was responsible for 10.7% of all US jobs. Add in the fact that President Trump is contesting the election results, and there is even more potential for things to go awry. For the answer to the first question, one statement will suffice: The Federal Reserve Bank creates money for the US government to spend and for banks to loan.
But while trade tensions are likely to abate, an end to the skirmishes over tech and tax that marked the Trump era is too much to hope for. But all of the euphoria around a coronavirus vaccine and the US election result has faded away. They criticized Trump’s trade tactics of surprise tariff hikes, which also were used against allies, but echo U.S. complaints that China is violating its free-trade commitments.

China

However, economists and political analysts expect few big changes due to widespread frustration with Beijing’s trade and human rights record and accusations of spying and technology theft. Some Chinese trade experts have suggested Beijing might try to renegotiate the “Phase 1” agreement signed in January as a first step toward ending the trade war. Political analysts expect Biden to try to resume cooperation with Beijing on climate change, North Korea, Iran and the coronavirus.

Europe

All this political infighting comes ahead of the latest Brexit deadline this Sunday, with little progress seen in the EU/UK trade talks. While volatility in the pair remains low, using the ATR indicator, this is likely to increase next week as we near the latest Brexit deadline. EUR/GBP is starting to show signs of Brexit-stress this week after having moved lower over the last two months in anticipation of an EU/UK trade deal. The EU outlined its charges against Amazon and opened another investigation into the retailer this week, echoing some complaints made this year by U.S. authorities.
less A deadline – like in Brexit talks – can be pushed back. Cummings was the mastermind of the Brexit Leave campaign, and his departure will deprive Johnson of a strategist who wielded huge influence over all aspects of government policy. less The UK government is in full-on fire-fighting mode as political infighting, Brexit deadlines, and a record surge in coronavirus cases all land on the Prime Minister’s desk.
Another week of Brexit talks ends today with little progress. The EU said it s opposed to the destruction of the forest and several of its officials have already engaged with Ugandan authorities on the issue.
New Zealand made a similar pledge in September and the European Union is more than two years into deploying a wide-ranging program of sustainable finance rules.

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