Open: New York Session | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture November 18, 2020

less Soybean (SOYB) futures sold for around $11.69 per bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade yesterday, breaching a four-year high earlier this month. Soybean futures sold for around $11.69 per bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade yesterday, breaching a four-year high earlier this month. By comparison, CBoT soybean futures were trading around $9.40 per bushel when the U.S.-China Phase 1 trade deal was signed in mid-January. This month, Brazil suspended tariffs on soybean imports from outside the country to ensure its domestic supplies were stable following strong demand.
It said farmers had completed the wheat and barley harvest and collected 22.7 million tonnes of corn from 82% of the sown area. Soybean prices hold near $12 per bushel, which was also driven by adverse weather (storms and drought) in both the US and South America. Reuters notes many Brazilian farmers sold their crops before CBoT soybean futures began to rise. “It started with better-than-expected demand, particularly from China as they bought soybeans because they needed them as part of the Phase 1 trade deal,” he said.
Over two decades ago Jay got his start at the Kansas City Board of Trade in the Wheat Futures pit. A domestic shortfall of corn stocks led China to go on a buying spree over the last few months.

Dollar index The dollar index has closed the last session at 92.43, declining by 0.22 per cent. Trade strategy As the domestic currency shows strength on the back weak dollar index, it is likely to appreciate today amidst choppiness. Gene comments on stock, bond, dollar, oil & gold markets, with a particular emphasis on monetary policy, technology issues and S&P intraday action. At the interbank forex market, the domestic unit opened at 74.49 against the US dollar, then gained ground and touched 74.44 against the American currency.
The dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was down 0.02 per cent to 92.40. The supports of INR are at 74.50 and 74.60 BL Research Bureau Last session, the rupee (INR) managed to close at 74.46 against the dollar (USD) amid volatility. At September 30, 2020, the bank had modified less than 1% of its total loan portfolio by number and less than 3% by dollar in response to COVID-19.
We continue to save every dollar possible and invest as much as we can into income producing assets. The rupee on Tuesday appreciated 16 paise to settle at 74.46 against the US dollar. Treasury rates were primed to head to the moon (and the dollar to zero).

In global markets, gold rates edged lower today even as coronavirus cases continued to surge in many parts of the world. With two months of the year left, China has already imported a YTD record-high 5.6 million tons of copper, outpacing 2015 by several thousand tons. On the domestic front, gold prices in India also edged lower, tracking muted global cues. S&P 500 futures pointed to small gain at the open, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 0.859%, oil was higher and gold was lower.
On MCX, gold futures today fell 0.4% to Rs 50,546 per 10 grams, extending losses to the third day. China’s demand for copper picked up considerably this year starting in June, and it remained elevated through the end of October. Gold, an investment that is also seen as a hedge, rose to an all-time high in August. BNDES has reduced its stake in Vale to 2.4% of the miner’s voting shares, it said. He is also the author of the 2015 book, The Coming Renewal of Gold’s Secular Bull Market which is available for free.
Gold prices are trading down by 0.5% at Rs 50,515 per 10 grams.

U.S. Midstream Production and Consumption – Oil and Gas 360 The world’s oil production has dropped significantly, but its oil consumption has dropped even much more significantly. Due to its oil hedges (with approximately 54% of its 2021 oil production hedged), it expects to achieve positive cash flow at $35 WTI oil. At current strip prices (close to $43 WTI oil and $2.85 Henry Hub natural gas), QEP is projected to generate $878 million in oil and gas revenue.
According to a US oil and gas agency, commercial crude stocks in the country rose by 4.17 million bbl in the week ending the 13th of November. The last thing the oil market needs in this lockdown winter will be 2 million more barrels a day of supply. US stocks increasing was also negative for prices, but the market is expecting falling oil stocks due to lower supply from OPEC+. On average, the crude oil production in these shales fell by 20% in the past year. Malaysian palm oil futures rose, underpinned by expectations of tight supplies in November, although concerns of slowing demand from Indonesia limited gains.
Over the past couple of months, crude oil price has stabilized at the $40’s level, while there has been a rise in the frac spread count. When the price of oil plummeted at the beginning of the year, the company was forced to cut its dividend to cover its outstanding debt obligations.

The main objective of the Fed’s credit facilities is to provide a liquidity backstop for corporate bonds and improve credit market functioning. Meaning it would look like Trump would win, and then suddenly Biden would win at the last minute. The primary market isn’t a physical market like we would typically associate with Wall Street. The company is the 3rd largest of its kind in the US and in the past five years has increased market share primarily through organic growth.
An article in the Guardian, of all places, went into great detail about this just last year, when they were suggesting that Trump may have stolen the 2016 election. Growth from hyperscale operators like (AMZN) and (GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL) is clear enough, but investors may be underappreciating the long-term growth potential from edge computing as 5G rolls out. For the S&P High Yield Corporate Bond Index, the impact of the Fed’s credit facilities on new bond issuance was more visible.
Another new dividend we received compared to last year was Cincinnati Financial (NASDAQ:CINF). Nasdaq Futures are trading down by 55 points (down 0.5%), while Dow Futures are trading down by 145 points (down 0.5%). US stock futures are trading lower today, indicating a negative opening for Wall Street indices.

When the ECB first announced it would scale down its asset purchases in late 2016, the market was pricing around 1% higher short rates on a 5-year horizon. PMIs were heading higher, GDP growth had accelerated and the unemployment rate was falling, boosting the ECB’s confidence that further progress towards meeting the inflation target would be ahead. Back then, the ECB never actually got into raising rates but was instead forced to restart net asset purchases later in 2019.
The market is not pricing in much risk of tighter monetary policy any time soon – room for a significant repricing in a hawkish ECB scenario. However, inflation does not need to be at target for the ECB to start scaling down purchases. The ECB could change its stance much sooner than inflation hits the target. In June 2018, the ECB’s staff forecasts still showed inflation at only 1.7% in 2020, though the core inflation forecast stood at 1.9%. The ECB will conclude its strategy review next year, which could also have an impact on the preferred monetary policy tools of the central bank.
As talks continue between the EU and the UK and rumours swirl that a deal could be ready as soon as Monday or Tuesday next week.
The ECB tapering decision in June 2018 was accompanied by a message that progress towards a sustained adjustment in inflation has been substantial so far.