Open: New York Session | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture November 19, 2020



A dollar rally would likely keep coffee futures prices below the 135 level—the upper boundary of coffee’s trading range. Downtrend scenario A downtrend will start as soon, as the corn market drops below support level 390, which will be followed by moving down to support level 355. Coffee spent the past year tracing out a large trading range marked by support at 95 cents per pound and resistance at $1.40 per pound. In this report, I’ll make the case that the ambiguity which prevails in the coffee market—when combined with an improving currency backdrop—supports a bullish intermediate-term outlook for java prices.
We believe corn’s ability to rally in the face of seasonal harvest pressure is a signal of higher prices ahead. Questions also abound as to how much recent COVID-related shutdowns have affected retail demand for coffee. Indeed, the persistent weakness in the real/dollar pair has been one of the major factors holding back the Brazil-dominated coffee market in recent years.
Our customers not holding December $3.60 calls may also want to consider purchasing March $4.40 corn calls. Lower corn yields due to unfavorable late-summer weather in the American heartland are helping prop up prices as well. This in turn could result in lower supply going forward, providing yet another boost for coffee’s intermediate-term bullish case.


“In my previous article, I have mentioned that New Zealand dollar was one of the most overvalued currencies vs. the U.S. dollar. Moreover, recent US dollar weakness is helping EM companies and countries that have dollar borrowings to access capital markets and repay their debts. Haven inflows buoyed the US Dollar and Japanese Yen while the risk-sensitive Australian dollar drifted lower despite positive employment figures. Historically, “expensive” exchange rate of the New Zealand dollar and a bearish divergence between NZD and milk prices enhance the views of a limited upside for the currency.
less Currency markets are more sensitive to risk-off flow into Thursday, with the US Dollar coming back into favor on the traditional flight to safety appeal. FOREX: The dollar strengthened as broad optimism about COVID-19 vaccines ran into worries about rising infection numbers and risks to the fragile global economic recovery. Gene comments on stock, bond, dollar, oil & gold markets, with a particular emphasis on monetary policy, technology issues and S&P intraday action.
The euro also depreciated against the dollar since gold has a positive correlation with the euro. We also compare the weakness in the US dollar and bond market to the metals and overall mentality of investors. Based on the 24-month running bond spreads correlations, I have calculated that the is overvalued by while the Canadian dollar is overvalued by only .


Downtrend scenario A downtrend will start as soon, as the gold market drops below support level 1848,20, which will be followed by moving down to support level 1780. Downtrend scenario A downtrend will start as soon, as the gold market drops below support level 1933, which will be followed by moving down to support level 1848. less Uptrend scenario An uptrend will start as soon, as the gold market rises above resistance level 1863.50, which will be followed by moving up to resistance level 1884.
Downtrend scenario The downtrend may be expected to continue in case the gold market drops below support level 1858, which will be followed by reaching support level 1848. Details are presented below: In the third quarter of 2020, the average gold price was 29.6% higher from the same quarter a year ago. Source: Presentation The stock has outperformed the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) and can be considered an excellent proxy for gold. Should there be a major selloff in the equity market, he said he expects gold will also sell off and Bitcoin (BTC-USD) could fall as well.
The trading strategy is to accumulate below cautiously depending on the price of gold, which is now weakening and could correct below $1,750 at one point.
less Zerodha, premier online digital brokerage firm, has announced a new platform for gifting stocks, ETFs, and gold bonds to relatives and friends. On MCX, gold futures fell 0.3% to Rs 50,180 per 10 grams in its fourth straight day of losses.


MARKETS TODAY OIL: Oil futures dipped as a surge in coronavirus cases and tighter economic restrictions around the globe weighed on fuel demand expectations, also dragging down equities globally. Elsewhere, Libyan oil officials have been planning to boost their oil production further after reaching the level of 1.2 million bpd. The decline in oil demand and production in 2020 has sent shares of oil stocks lower, creating higher dividend yields. As a result, gasoline inventories rose by 2.6 million bbl, much higher than expectations of an 87,000 bbl increase.
Crude inventories rose by 768,000 barrels in the week to Nov. 13 to 489.5 million barrels, compared with analyst expectations in a Reuters poll for a 1.7 million-barrel rise. The Q4 oil investment survey points to about unchanged oil investments in 2020 and a less steep decline in 2021. China, the world’s largest importer of crude, is the only major buyer expected to see increased oil demand this year as the pandemic destroyed consumption globally.
U.S. crude inventories, which rose by 768,000 barrels last week, less than analyst expectations for a 1.7 million-barrel rise, similarly supported prices. This tax package has resulted in oil companies going forward with shelved investment plans, thereby softening the blow for the Norwegian economy. Already unemployment is above 40% in Nigeria’s energy regions and observers say further job losses could aggravate problems of pipeline tapping, illegal oil refining and pirate attacks.

United States

This would only accelerate if the US government also was actively encouraging more renewable energy investment. | The Trump administration has assured states they will have enough hospital beds and equipment to handle the alarming nationwide surge in coronavirus cases. Joe Biden’s more affable demeanor defeated President Trump’s governing style — albeit with help from the mainstream media — but the big blue wave got flushed. Since leaving Wall Street I’ve dedicated my financial career towards studying this situation and helping people understand what’s actually happening.
Infrastructure is expected to benefit, but was supposed to under Trump also and never got the programs moving to do so. Is the US next to see a wave of social unrest as new restrictions are being reimposed? The US is doing a bit better without lockdowns, but with hospitalizations breaking records there should be less activity as we head into the holiday shopping season.
During his investing career, Carl Icahn has gone through many dramatic ups and downs, and each time, he staged a major comeback. With a Biden Administration, we can expect the US to rejoin the Paris accord and renewed efforts to push clean energy. He has been quoted in a variety of financial news publications, such as CNBC, the Wall Street Journal, and the New York Post.


The agreement was free of any accusations of “unfair” trade hurled at Beijing. It appears that Brussels and Beijing seem to be finally engaging in building some sort of synergy between the One Belt One Road (OBOR) Initiative.


New deal | The U.K. and Canada are poised to announce a new trade agreement to replace the existing one Britain has through EU membership in the coming days. Clearly, both member states feel that they have leverage, with many other member states, particularly Italy and Spain, eager to receive EU funds in coming years. 18/11/2020#Alemania El tiránico régimen de #Merkel, que se aferraba a la silla de la Canciller con dedos azules, dispersó la manifestación de destacadas personalidades.
The reason is that the bank probably wants to take a wait-and-see stance and possibly revise its monetary policy against the background of the ECB’s coming measures.
The ECB has an interesting monetary policy meeting scheduled for 10 December when it is expected to unveil a wide range of measures. It outlined agreement on three quite sensitive fronts and paved the way for a complex, wide-ranging EU-China investment deal. The ECB has expressed concern about the strength of the EUR and the new measures could potentially affect exchange rates. Talks on how to replace EU rules and keep goods flowing freely have yet to reach agreement.
This isn’t insignificant, but due to my anticipated resolution with the EU, the actual losses would likely end up being around half of this. Green Daily In climate news today… EU may delay a decision on a stricter 2030 climate goal.