Open: New York Session | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture November 27, 2020

A member of the National Guard plays a trumpet during a flag rai

Agriculture

MARKET NEWS London cocoa rose on Thursday, heading back towards Tuesday’s two-month highs amid tight nearby supplies, though volumes were thin with U.S. markets closed for the Thanksgiving holiday.

Currencies

Supporting the rupee bulls, the dollar index hints at weak dollar. Paul Davies writes in the Wall Street Journal that many in the market expect the value of the U.S. dollar to continue to decline. As the new economic stimulus pushes up the expectations of inflation in the U.S. versus what is expected in many other countries, the value of the dollar should decline. The dollar traded softer on a drop in U.S. bond yields while the yen rose against most major currencies as global coronavirus cases continue to surge higher.
One thing for sure, the dollar is widely discounted, while those bullish on risk assets has rarely, if ever, been higher. Then there are the market strategists at Citigroup (NYSE:C), who, Mr. Davies reports, think that in 2021, the dollar could fall by another 20 percent. This will continue so long as the dollar weakens/stock prices rise. Strong inflows helped the rupee gain ground against the dollar.Dollar indexThe dollar index ended flat on Thursday as 92.
One reason given for this is that the U.S. dollar has been such a “safe haven” for risk-averse foreign investors. On November 2, the U.S. Dollar Index (CXY) published by the Wall Street Journal ended the day at 94.13.

Metals

Note that in the last five days, gold prices in India have dropped nearly Rs 1,700 per 10 grams, in line with a similar fall in global prices. In global markets, gold prices edged 0.3% lower today as progress in the Covid-19 vaccine development and US President-elect Joe Biden’s transition to the White House bolstered risk sentiment. To know more about gold, check out our article on how to invest in gold here: How to Invest in Gold? Source: Author via Tradingview After the fund’s recent declines, the iShares Silver Trust is now trading near critical support levels that can be found near $20.40.
Amid a weak global trend, gold prices in India also edged lower. Gold, where the rally has stalled since the US election result and news of virus vaccines, was up marginally at $1,806, some way off its August peak above $2,000. Gold prices are trading flat at Rs 48,534 per 10 grams. Overall, we think that investors have limited options under this scenario, and this is why we expect downside in the iShares Silver Trust to be somewhat limited going forward.
On MCX, gold futures dipped marginally to Rs 48,501 per 10 grams. In the previous session, gold prices had slipped 0.1%.

Oil

MARKETS TODAY OIL: Oil prices were mixed but remained on course for a fourth straight week of gains ahead of an OPEC+ meeting early next week. From 3Q 2019, exports have increased more than 20% YoY supported by rapid growth in oil growth and less modest growth on oil products. Petrobras’ risk is the same as every other major oil company, its oil prices. Trading sources and an oil ministry official with direct knowledge of oil exports operations said the new deadline was Dec. 4 instead of Nov. 27.
Petrobras Oil By-Products – Petrobras Investor Presentation In terms of oil by-products, Petrobras has seen its utilization factor recover significantly. Petrobras Production Growth – Petrobras Investor Presentation Petrobras has grown its production 2% YoY and 5% QoQ, supported by growth in both the company’s oil and gas production segments. Especially supporting the company’s exploration & production is the company’s pre-salt oil growth. Among the key movers, the price of oil – which hit an 8 month high this week only to dip on supply concerns.
Especially, the company’s commercial oil and gas production has gone up, along with production in its hub Brazil.
Saudi’s oil revenue in the first half of the year was 35 percent lower than a year earlier, while non-oil revenue fell by 37 percent.

United States

The Canadian housing market did not really feel the pinch that the US housing market did in 2008/09, and is well overdue. Following the same pattern, the U.S. stock market rose with all three major stock indexes, DJIA, S&P 500, and NASDAQ, reaching new, historical highs just before the Thanksgiving break. In the last few decades, the uranium market in the US has been decimated due to incredibly low uranium prices due to environmental concerns (i.e.
The economic calendar in Europe is light and there won’t be anything going on in the US session, with most of the market still out for Thanksgiving break. Legal experts propose that Yellen may be able to roll back Mnuchin’s move and restore these funds under the prior agreement. Some of the market’s money has been on the Fed shifting its purchases to longer-dated securities as soon as its Dec. 16-17 meeting. Biden is set to present his economic team next week, with former Fed Chair Janet Yellen designated as Treasury Secretary.
New York Fed President John Williams wasn’t stoking expectations with his comments that the central bank’s existing purchases are “serving their purposes really well right now.” This is likely due to the already overwhelming amount of support the Fed is providing through other tools and measures. Nasdaq Futures are trading up by 36 points (up 0.3%) while Dow Futures are trading up by 13 points (up 0.04%).

China

#1 Mattson in 2012 dropped out of the rankings in 2016 when it was acquired by Beijing’s E-Town Capital and never recovered.

Europe

There is pressure on the EU to uphold its international climate leadership by communicating an updated national target under the Paris Agreement by year-end. The U.K. s Brexit-fueled divisive influence on the EU is about to end on Dec. 31, with or without a trade deal. Chancellor Angela Merkel and regional leaders agreed to extend the lockdown through December 20 and easing could have to wait for after Christmas. But one unnamed EU diplomat cited in Reuters underscored that “, so there’s no consensus in the Council (of EU governments).
EU shipping pollution plan criticized by industry, Asian nations. But for now it s 25 against two: Poland and Hungary are increasingly isolated, and the EU surely feels emboldened to tough it out. According to Deutsche Welle: as part of the EU’s Irini mission to enforce the UN’s Libya arms embargo. The Turkish Foreign Ministry said it had summoned the envoys to Ankara of Germany, the EU and Italy to protest the “unauthorized” operation.

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