Open: New York Session | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture October 13, 2020



Downtrend scenario A downtrend will start as soon, as the soybean market drops below support level 854, which will be followed by moving down to support level 816. It revised down the 2020 corn crop forecast to 32.5 million tonnes from 35.3 million and barley to 8 million tonnes from 8.3 million tonnes. less Uptrend scenario An uptrend will start as soon, as the soybean market rises above resistance level 1046, which will be followed by moving up to resistance level 1063.
The union cut the 2020 wheat crop outlook to 25.3 million tonnes from 26.6 million tonnes a month earlier. Demand for the oilseed is expected to stay strong in the world’s top soybean importer due to a pig herd that is recovering rapidly from the African swine fever. MARKET NEWS Chicago wheat futures rose around 1%, underpinned by worries that dry weather in key U.S. and the Black Sea region producing areas could threaten 2021 supplies. Three of the eight corn fields have been harvested, though none in the latest week, and the remaining five should be completed within the next two weeks.
Raw sugar and arabica coffee futures closed down on ICE on Monday as speculators liquidated some of their long positions in several agricultural commodities and the dollar weakened. Bearish trend continued in sugar market on Tuesday. COLUMN-Crop Watch: Huge harvest week for soybeans with favorable results -Braun Five of the eight U.S.


The NZD/JPY currency pair, which expresses the value of the New Zealand dollar in terms of the Japanese yen, is classically a risk-on currency pair. The rupee depreciated 13 paise to 73.41 against the US dollar in opening trade on Tuesday tracking strengthening American currency. Gene comments on stock, bond, dollar, oil & gold markets, with a particular emphasis on monetary policy, technology issues and S&P intraday action. The Indian currency opened at 73.41 against the US dollar at the interbank forex market, down 13 paise over its previous close.
A drastic swing in risk appetite on Tuesday led a rebound in the US Dollar, which simultaneously weighed on precious metal prices. Another catalyst for a decline in commodity prices, equities, and ultimately bond yields would be a rise in the U.S. dollar. This multi-million dollar shortfall was due to lower-than-expected volumes and once again a negative mix from coal market headwinds. Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, surged 0.10 per cent to 93.16.
The prices of gold declined slightly on Tuesday as the U.S. dollar recovered. Much of the bulls rallying cry has been based on the dollar weakening with the onset of QE.


Gold ETF holdings increased by 68.1 tons last month, despite the metal’s worst monthly price performance since November 2016, according to data released by the World Gold Council. Inflows of gold into ETFs are significant in their effect on the world gold market, pushing overall demand higher. In fact, with the price of gold at all-time highs, the gold mining index (GDX) is still 30%+ below its highs of 2011. Downtrend scenario The downtrend may be expected to continue, while gold is trading below resistance level 1928, which will be followed by reaching support level 1893.
The Gold Analyst offers quality technical and fundamental analysis of the price of gold to help educate readers in their investment decisions. Downtrend scenario A downtrend will start as soon, as gold drops below support level 1920, which will be followed by moving down to support level 1848. Downtrend scenario A downtrend will start as soon, as gold drops below support level 1795, which will be followed by moving down to support level 1500 and 1350.
The World Gold Council projects continued growth in gold investment, noting that the September pullback was likely “tactical” in nature.
less Uptrend scenario An uptrend will start as soon, as gold rises above resistance level 1928, which will be followed by moving up to resistance level 1952. So far in 2020, ETFs have added 1,003 tons of gold, taking total holdings to an all-time high of 3,880 tons and $235 billion in assets under management (AUM).


Since oil takes the largest share of the global energy mix, oil traders and alternative investment seekers put a great value on this report. Peak oil The Paris-based International Energy Agency said that the pandemic will have a permanent effect on global oil demand. Malaysian palm oil futures eased as traders booked profits after a six-day rally, although a tight supply of the vegetable oil and hopes for higher October exports limited losses. The OPEC World Oil Outlook that was published earlier had oil demand plateauing in late 2030s.
Shut offshore crude oil production fell to 69.4%, or 1.28 million barrels per day (bpd), on Monday from 91%, or 1.68 million barrels, on Sunday, the regulator said. With growth continuing next year and in 2022, the company will have more revenue from clean energy than from the oil & gas business next. The coronavirus pandemic has caused a rapid collapse in crude oil prices as lockdowns and quarantines stymied demand.
But as the regulatory issues for the oil & gas markets ease and as the company pivots to clean energy, investors will value the stock at higher multiples. Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, rose 0.17 per cent to USD 41.79 per barrel. The Energy and Chemicals segment focuses primarily on the oil and gas industry which is currently in shambles due to the effects of the coronavirus pandemic.

United States

US stock futures are trading mixed today with Nasdaq Futures trading up by 21 points (up 0.2%), while Dow Futures trading down 40 points (down 0.1%). Stock futures tumbled on election night in 2016 with investors concerned Mr. Trump’s victory would hurt corporate earnings because of his unpredictable policies and advocacy for barriers to trade. Also a look at important currency, commodity and equity developments as earnings season is set to get under way in the US in earnest today.
Year to date, the Nasdaq is up an impressive 32.7%, putting it on pace for the first back-to-back annual gain of over 30% since 1998 and 1999. Markets mixedGlobal equities are little changed as investors digest the setback in a vaccine trial and await the start of Wall Street earnings season. The yellow metal was also pulled down by the rally of Wall Street’s main indexes support by the rise of tech stocks. Nasdaq Futures are trading up by 95 points (up 0.8%), while Dow Futures are trading down by 95 points (down 0.3%).
Wall Street typically uses some sectors or other assets that would be impacted by different policies to build broad election baskets associated with each political party. We can also see that dealers have been building their positions in the NASDAQ 100, which suggests hedging is taking place, either against stocks or indexes. Other longer-term Trump trades, however, like bets on infrastructure spending and higher bond yields, have reversed in the past few years.


However, the upcoming EU bond issuance may result in flows that actually create widening pressures for long-dated swap spreads. It’s interesting to see how many EU bonds the national central banks of the Eurosystem, particularly the Bundesbank, would buy. We suspect a wave of profit-taking might cause a temporary re-widening in sovereign spreads ahead of the October 29th ECB meeting. Apparently, that philosophy also extends to antitrust policy.Five years ago, U.S. officials were routinely asking the European Union to defend its intentions of cracking down on American internet giants.
The EU, which has perhaps made the most impressive strides in terms of activating its ability to spend, has had challenges getting its recovery fund going.
In the near-term, we expect demand for carry and the build-up to the coming ECB meeting will trigger more tightening. Difference between US – EU manufacturing and interest rates showing fair price on the level 1.1450 – 1.12. Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis notified the European Council by phone, at a moment the EU has threatened sanctions on NATO country Turkey.Mitsotakis said.
Meanwhile, EU leaders will discuss preparations for a potential collapse of trade talks with the U.K. at a summit later this week. With the deadline looming to sort out the Brexit arrangements and arguments continuing with Brussels, it s unlikely to get any better for him soon.