Open: New York Session | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture September 29, 2020



The U.S. corn crop was 15% harvested, the USDA said, behind the five-year average of 16% and the average analyst estimate of 17%. The union has said output of white sugar was likely to fall by 15% in 2020 to around 1.2 million tonnes. MARKET NEWS Chicago soybean futures lost ground, with the market dropping for six out of seven sessions, as a rapid pace of U.S. harvest pressured prices. Russia, one of the world’s biggest wheat exporters, has said it could set the grain export quota for January-June 2021 if there is a need to secure domestic supplies.
Raw sugar and arabica coffee futures fell more than 3% on Monday as Brazil’s currency fell to the lowest value against the U.S. dollar in more than four months. Soybean exports to China could regain some lost market share on Biden s more diplomatic approach. The corn harvest lagged slightly as producers focused on soybeans. COLUMN-Crop Watch: Home run for Indiana corn but huge letdown for Illinois soy: Braun The Illinois soybeans were the third of 16 U.S.
But the fourth field, the Indiana corn, finished on a very strong note.


Karakama added that market participants were also keeping a close watch on progress over stimulus talks: “The dollar market has been broadly bottoming out from low prices since mid-September. Copper prices advanced, though gains were capped as a steady U.S. dollar made greenback-priced metals less attractive to holders of other currencies. Gene comments on stock, bond, dollar, oil & gold markets, with a particular emphasis on monetary policy, technology issues and S&P intraday action.
We believe the dollar’s bull market is over and that the bear market will only accelerate when these lows are eventually taken out. The company also highlighted the reduction of the operating loss on an adjusted basis and on a dollar basis, at $26 million versus $30 million. As we recently discussed in a previous article, we believe the US dollar is in danger of completing a multi-year double top formation which is a bearish pattern. Further weakness in the US Dollar may also offer XAU/USD a boost over the next 24 hours.
Then on Friday, U.S. jobs data for August, when nonfarm payrolls are reported.Neither will be a game changer to the longer-term outlook for gold and the dollar. If this happens, we would expect to see people losing confidence in currencies like the dollar. DX crashed to a newer two-year low of 91.73 on Sept.1, testimony of that record short position that Hyerczyk referred to.Yet, that didn’t break the dollar’s rally.


In other words, by historical standards the gold price is still very high relative to the cost of energy, meaning that gold mining profit margins remain elevated. Gold is setting up for a strong rally over the next year, as market volatility has been elevated and will likely be elevated for the remainder of the year. Monarch Gold is advancing a portfolio of gold projects in the Abitibi mining camp in Quebec, Canada. With gold prices rising again, is it time to buy gold?
Its shareholders include Alamos Gold (AGI) (16% owner), Yamana Gold (AUY) (6%), Hecla Mining (HL) (4%) and Agnico Eagle (AEM) (3%). – Yamana Gold invested $4.2 million in Monarch Gold on June 11. The key tie-in to gold here is this: investors tend to view gold as a safe commodity. Gold price surged higher earlier this year surpassing the $2,000 per ounce level for the first time in history during August 2020. It is estimated to produce 142,000 ounces of gold per year at $630/oz AISC over a 11-year mine life, with reasonable upfront capex expense (C$464 million).
Historically speaking, environments like these tend to see higher gold prices over the next year.


Enterprise Products Partners is a master limited partnership that transports and processes natural gas, natural gas liquids, crude oil, refined products, and petrochemicals. Yet, this company produces some oil and natural gas liquids as well as the natural gas. They do produce a fair amount of natural gas, natural gas liquids, then about 44% oil. Therefore, this company is in a position to benefit from the coming natural gas price rally as well as any oil price strengthening.
Next year is probably going to be one of the better years for natural gas prices, after very weak prices in 2020 help rebalance the market. The current well production is roughly half natural gas and about one-third oil. Natural gas production has plummeted with the natural gas rig count falling to all-time lows. Malaysian palm oil futures rose on concerns over supply disruption following a fresh two-week lockdown in parts of the country’s largest palm oil producing state.
A lot will depend upon the pricing received for the natural gas liquids and natural gas. Source: Cabot Oil & Gas An increase to a $0.15 per share quarterly dividend could probably be supported in the long term.

United States

After a positive opening, benchmark indices slipped into the red as investors awaited fresh cues from the US Presidential debate and economic calendar this week. The U.S does come in better than Italy, which had a 9.7 percent unemployment rate and Canada with a 10.2 percent unemployment rate. Face off President Donald Trump and Democrat nominee Joe Biden come face to face tonight in the first of three scheduled pre-election debates. First, tonight’s debate between Republican President Donald Trump and his Democratic challenger Joe Biden, ahead of the November 3 face-off for the 2020 U.S. election.
We discuss metals both industrial and precious, the intense focus on the first Biden-Trump debate, and much more. The prospect of the Fed pinning interest rates near zero for years to come and allowing inflation to run hot helped pull so-called real yields into negative territory. Nasdaq Futures are trading up by 38 points (up 0.3%), while Dow Futures are trading up by 88 points (up 0.3%).
On the economic front, Trump has doubled down on tax cuts and deregulation, while Biden wants to raise corporate taxes and restore relationships with economic allies. The list includes retired General Paul Selva, who served as vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff for the first two and a half years of Trump’s presidency. All three major US stock indices were in the green to start the week, with the Nasdaq Composite the biggest winner at +1.9%.


Here is PIIE’s breakdown of China’s imports by product type, showing Beijing is severely behind in purchases of agriculture, manufactured goods, and energy products. Beijing s pledge to decarbonise before 2060 requires major electrification using renewable energy.


The EU competition enforcer will now seek feedback from rivals and customers before deciding whether to accept the concessions, demand more, or either clear or block the detail. Lurking in the background is the U.K.’s Internal Market Bill, which is still making its way through parliament, but includes clauses that override parts of the Brexit withdrawal treaty. The discussions are intended to bridge gaps on EU boats’ access to U.K. fishing waters and the amount of support that governments are allowed to give businesses.
For Brexiteers, they view key fishing grounds as a reclamation of British national sovereignty – a notion that falls in line with the ideological undercurrent of Brexit. The final round of Brexit talks kick off today before a self-imposed deadline for reaching a trade agreement by Oct. 15. Other key issues like fisheries continue to be a major point of contention and that are contributing to delayed Brexit breakthroughs. To be climate neutral, then, would mean also stopping any particulate matter pollution, but that s not something the EU has promised.
Until the transition period expires, the UK still must adhere to the EU’s Common Fisheries Policy (CFP).
Yet the EU is demanding an investigation (which is already under way in Russia anyway!)