Hello everyone, it’s nice to have you again. This week I take a long position in ORANGE JUICE if in your broker you don’t have the option to trade this instrument, you still have time to open an account at pepperstone and take this trade at the opening tomorrow.
I have some strong evidence that orange juice has bottomed and we are starting a strong bullish trend, let’ go to the facts. First of all, we have non-commercials for the last 6 weeks taking profits in their shorts and this move has accelerated this week at the point that we got a COT signal to go long. The signal is triggered when the stochastics indicator applied to non-commercials net positions enter an overbought region, this means that they are pushing harder to the long side. You can see this in the following two charts:
Ok, this for is already enough to take the position, but I have more to show for you all! Follow me after the charts!
Technical Analysis
Well from risk-return it completes worth the shot here, if we are wrong the stop loss is very cheap and the price is accumulating for the first time after this massive downtrend. Also, this simple yet powerful indicator I wrote is giving us a buy signal on weekly, the last signal was short on 16-09-2018 and after that, the price dropped more than 500 pips or 50 USD. Check the charts and don’t go away yet, I have one extra thing for you all!
The Fundamentals
After a little research in my database, I found two interesting news articles. The first one is from seeking alpha and what got my attention was this:
In summary, dryness in Brazil will be closely watched by coffee traders in the weeks and months ahead. I believe staying long coffee will be a smart play into October. There are several teleconnections around the globe with respect to ocean temperatures, I watch, that will play a critical role for soybeans (SOYB), coffee, wheat (WEAT), orange juice and other commodities.
And this another of from the economist and my eyes were focused on this:
But the pact should improve market access for French cheese, Brazilian orange juice and Argentine fish, as well as car parts made in Europe, which now attract Mercosur tariffs of 14-18%.
Folks, in other words, this profit-taking have a reason, the demand for orange juice is about to increase globally so I conclude that this commodity is mispriced and we can profit from this.
Trade of The Week:
- Symbol: ORANGE JUICE
- Side: LONG
- Reason: All Above
- Entry: At the market on Monday opening
- Stop Loss: 87
- Take Profit: Leaving Open but first TP at 125.00
Well, my friends, I hope we can profit with this together. You can find me in my chatroom daily.
Let’s rock this week!
Best regards
Leo Hermoso
