USD/CHF Technical Trading Analysis Incorporating CFTC COT Data and Economic Indicators


The USD/CHF pair has displayed considerable volatility in recent months, with a notable downtrend evident from the CFTC Commitment of Traders data, which shows a growing preference for short positions amongst speculators. The Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) decision to set interest rates at 1.75% and recent economic indicators provide additional context for our technical analysis.

Traders should note that the Federal Funds Effective Rate stands at a significant 5.33%, indicating a more aggressive monetary policy compared to the SNB’s stance, which could lead to dollar strength, potentially affecting the USD/CHF pair. However, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) posting a slight monthly decrease by 0.2%, combined with a relatively stable unemployment rate, leads to a mixed sentiment.

Our trend analysis highlights that after testing the previous monthly high of 0.9244, the pair has seen a retracement to a critical support level. The recent pivot point statistics show a resistance (R1) at 1.3721 and pivot points at 1.3781 (R3) and 1.3601 (S3), which traders must observe for potential breakouts or bounces.

The Fibonacci retracement levels, with the 38.2% at 1.3688 and the 61.8% at 1.3674, align with these pivot points, suggesting a consolidation phase. Should the pair break below the previous monthly low of 1.3562, a deeper correction could be in the offing, while a bounce could see the pair retesting the high areas.

The daily chart shows the formation of a descending trend-line acting as a potential hurdle for bullish movements. The technical levels will serve as key areas for traders to consider entries and exits, with USD/CHF’s movement close to the 0.8800 level suggesting that the pair may seek to test the robust support near July’s low at around 0.8550.

Further sentiment analysis could be shaped by the latest Consumer Sentiment Index from the University of Michigan, standing at 63.8, and the U.S. GDP YoY growth, which is currently at 0.3%. These economic readings may impact risk sentiment and consequently affect the USD/CHF trading patterns.

Considering the overall data and market structure, a prudent trading strategy might involve watching for consolidation breakouts and considering the impact of broader market sentiment on the USD/CHF, using pivot points and COT data as important sentiment gauges. As always, it is essential to correlate the movements with economic announcements and employ a robust risk management strategy.


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