USDJPY 2019 FED Pattern

USDJPY is one of the most interesting pair to observe because of JPY nature of being a funding currency with a negative interest rate, giving it the misleading concept of safe-haven currency and at the other side of the pair we have USD a risk-on currency. So this is one of the main reasons that this symbol has a well-defined range trading zone.

I have observed consistent patterns with NFP and now with FED. All the releases this year for Fed Interest Rate Decision was the start of a big trend for USDJPY and the opposite direction of the candle printed in the moment of the release. So let’s see what happened in the last data releases and see if we can get an edge of it:

Release date: 30/01/2019:

Candle printed:

  • Direction <- “Down”
  • Trend till next Release <- “UP”
  • Max Favourable move till next release <-327 pips
  • Max Adverse move till next release  <- -38.4 pips
  • Ratio 8:1

 

 

Release date: 20/03/2019:

Candle printed:

  • Direction <- “Down”
  • Trend till next Release <- “UP”
  • Max Favourable move till next release <-174 pips
  • Max Adverse move till next release  <- -84 pips
  • Ratio 2:1

 

Release date: 01/05/2019:

Candle printed:

  • Direction <- “Up”
  • Trend till next Release <- “Down”
  • Max Favourable move till next release <-325 pips
  • Max Adverse move till next release  <- -20 pips
  • Ratio 16:1

 

 

Release date: 19/06/2019:

Candle printed:

  • Direction <- “Down”
  • Trend till next Release <- “Up”
  • Max Favourable move till next release <-  202 pips
  • Max Adverse move till next release  <-    – 51 pips
  • Ratio 4:1

 

Release date: 31/07/2019:

Candle printed:

  • Direction <- “Up”
  • Trend till next Release <- “Down”
  • Max Favourable move till next release <-  280 pips
  • Max Adverse move till next release  <-    – 60 pips
  • Ratio 3:1

 

 

So we have in average a 51 pips adverse movement if you take the position on the close of the day against 261 pips of expected profit. For me it worth taking a trade like that and today I will bet in that this pattern will happen again. So I am waiting for the release and the close to choosing which side I will play.

Also, the average pop after the release is 65 pips!

That it’s folks! I hope this info can help you trade better today! Have a question? Just comment here that I will reply to you. Do you want to learn more stuff? Subscribe to our newsletter or come and join me in my chatroom and mentorship service.

 

Have a nice days friends,

Leo Hermoso

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